Thoughts on Repeated Past Major Climatic Events

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Abstract *

The difficulties associated with studying climate change and social sustainability in archaeology from a transdisciplinary and long-term perspective have been extensively documented through a historical review of natural disasters in the ancient world, as found in ancient literature and old sacred texts. Disasters that have impacted the course of civilization are mentioned in various verses. This paper briefly examines the water element, specifically floods, as a destructive force through the lens of mythological deluges worldwide. The present era experiences such extreme climatic events. Flooding is a major issue, and the recent mega-flooding events echo ancient mythological reports and ancient engineered hydraulic activities. This study will report on early hydraulic works from prehistoric times that were developed to drain flood-prone and marshy environments and enable cultivation. Learning from history should be a guiding principle, but it must be implemented practically. Climate programs that receive funding to study the catastrophic consequences of climate crises should shift focus from theoretical evaluations to inspiring tangible efforts that safeguard cultural heritage, modern life, and infrastructure. To prevent disasters, it is crucial to adopt modern technological tools and practices.

1. Introduction and The Past Geo- and Archaeo-Archive

State planning and the engineering profession are tightly connected to risk. The infrastructure built by correct and mindful State plans generally decreases risk from natural hazards but does not eliminate it.^† At the same time, infrastructure is subject to risk, per se. Comedian and writer John Oliver gave it an interesting definition: “Infrastructure: it’s our roads, bridges, dams, levees, airports, power grids—basically anything that can be destroyed in an action movie.” Accordingly, the implementation of mitigation and resilience in fundamental engineering work is socially sensitive and responsible to an enormous degree. Unlike Aesop’s shepherd, any decision maker at the State level cannot play with risk; the consequences, in case of a failure of infrastructure or its management, are not as ecologically friendly as wolves eating sheep.^‡

Saving the world from climate threats versus dispelling climate myths and fears, is achieved by learning from the past and prioritizing planning, funding and execution of strong infrastructures in the present time.

An objective assessment of risk is necessary, as risk has consistently been present in the past and will certainly persist in the future.

There is ample evidence from archaeological record for the existence of repeated natural disasters in the recent and distant past as well as mythological cataclysms which have proven to be real. From this scientifically sound information, the mythological floods and other natural causes have been well covered in literature.^§

Historical accounts provide repetitive descriptions of cultural development. Geo-archives (i.e., evidence from geology, sedimentology, and geomorphology) and the human record (i.e. archaeology and history) are considered records—evidence of events in the past. ^¶

2. Past Destructions from Natural Causes

Astronomical causes have introduced severe phenomena (warming, heavy rainfall, monsoons, droughts) imposed on ancient societies, including catastrophic meteor impacts. Terrestrial rearrangements and astronomical effects introduced a non-linear nature (irregular fluctuations with sporadic periodic occurrences of the same phenomena) into the transformation of human cultural evolution and the reshaping of the earth’s surface.

The images of deluges, floods, and falling skies were committed to memory. Scientific approaches have been used to objectively evaluate global disaster instances.

The transitory nature of geological, geophysical, and indirect (proxy) climate indicators, as well as astronomical phenomena within the solar system, presents a wide range of semi-periodic frequencies (recurring phenomena), as variable and active environmental factors, which, together with anthropogenic factors, reshape the human context.^**

The Late Bronze Age world of the Eastern Mediterranean, a rich linkage of Aegean, Egyptian, Syro-Palestinian, and Hittite civilizations, famously collapsed ca. 3200 years ago and has remained one of the mysteries of the ancient world. This event coincided with the onset of a ca. 300-year drought event at approximately 1200 cal. year BC.^††

Some additional examples of major climatic events include:^‡‡

• The Little Ice Age (1300–1850) disrupted agriculture and trade in Europe and Asia, leading to famine and social unrest.
• The Tambora volcanic eruption (1815) caused “the year without a summer” in 1816, triggering global food shortages.
• The Maya civilization’s collapse around 900 AD is linked to prolonged drought.
• The Dust Bowl (1930s USA), a man-made ecological disaster compounded by drought and poor land management.^§§

3. Mythological Deluges and Ancient Engineered Hydraulic Works and Allegories

Reports exist that document myths related to water destruction, such as the World List of Flood myths, which includes the Chinese myth of Yu, the four famous in Greece, and more.^¶¶ In all cases, their descendants (Abraham and Foroneas, Yu, Deucalion etc.), are related to origin and have promoted the culture and society of their peoples.

Climatic change, with prominent flood destruction, has long been an integral part of humanity’s collective memory, preserved through its myths.

At any rate, ample evidence also exists about engineering hydraulic works to either control flooding or manage the water (draining prehistoric lakes, tunneling works in Lake Copais in Boeotia, Greece and in China with the Great Floods of Gun-Yu ca. 2000 BC). In all ancient civilizations, the causes of natural processes, particularly geophysical and hydrological, were attributed to supernatural powers, usually deities. In all heroic accounts, charismatic individuals were given the charge of undertaking engineering works to prevent floods; they were subsequently worshipped and even had shrines built in their honor.^***

The recurring narratives of Great Floods in prehistoric societies may provide some insight into social development during these eras.

The ultimate aim then, as now, was the protection of communities and/or the establishment of a new generation (Figure 1).

Hercules is a characteristic Late Bronze Age hero. Three of the twelve labors mystically ordained by the Delphian oracle to Hercules are related to hydraulic content, e.g., here three artistic representations of Hercules fighting the Achelous River. Another is about the Lernaean Hydra, in Peloponnese: The extermination of the Hydra’s heads coincides with the hydrogeological behavior of the karst springs of Lerna. While the clearing of the manure from the stable of Augeas seems mundane on the surface, it has symbolic, moral, and political implications: The diversion of two rivers (the Alpheus and the Peneus) to wash out the filth, completes the task swiftly. Hercules’ act of cleansing them symbolizes the removal of deep-rooted problems—moral, social, or political (see: Apollodorus, The Library (Bibliotheca), Book 2, Chapter 5, Section 5). It reflects the need for radical, unconventional solutions to entrenched problems. (Figure 2).

Hydraulic earthworks relate to sacerdotal functions and heroic labor.

In all ancient civilizations, the causes of natural processes, particularly geophysical and hydrological, were attributed to supernatural powers, usually deities. Mythological explanations have been very influential in triggering social behaviors, but also in developing human skills, such as imagination and symbolism. In this respect, the rich Ancient Greek mythology has been inspiring in the arts and continues to be so even in modern times. This is illustrated in Fig. 2, depicting the mythological battle of Hercules, the well-known hero, against Achelous, a deity personifying the most important river of Greece. The three panels in the figure represent different arts, different aesthetic styles and different periods: 6th century BC, 19th century and 20th century, but with influences from the Byzantine tradition.

The myth of the battle of Hercules against Achelous was later summarized by Strabo (64 or 63 BC–c. AD 24), the Greek geographer.

Figure 2: Different depictions of the mythological battle of Hercules against Achelous: (left) on an Attic red-figure vase, 6th century BC, kept in the British Museum^†††; (middle) in a modern sculpture, Hercule combattant Achéloüs métamorphosé en serpent by François Joseph Bosio in 1824, exhibited at the Louvre^‡‡‡; (right) on a wall painting of Hercules fighting Achelous in the Athens City Hall by Fotis Kontoglou in 1937–1939 with Byzantine aesthetics.^§§§

Other world examples include:

Ancient Mesopotamia (Tigris–Euphrates Rivers): Seasonal floods often overwhelmed settlements. Major flood myths (e.g., Epic of Gilgamesh) suggest a cataclysmic flood event. The resilience strategies by ancient people included canal systems for controlled irrigation and drainage. Levees and embankments were built from earth and reeds. The Ziggurats (temple towers) built on high platforms—possibly acted as a refuge during floods.

Ancient Egypt (Nile River Floods): Disaster due to the annual Nile floods could either decline (famine) or be excessive (destruction). The flood was seen as predictable and beneficial for Egyptians, who timed agriculture around it. Resilience strategies included the use of Nilometers (stone gauges) to measure water levels and predict crop yields and taxes. Grain storage silos were built to serve as a buffer in bad years. Settlements were built above the floodplain on elevated ground.^¶¶¶

Ancient China (Yellow River/Yangtze River Floods) : The disaster known as “China’s sorrow,” was the Yellow river floods that caused immense destruction. For example, the 1931 flood (later period) killed millions. The resilience strategies included early dike systems and channel diversions (starting around 2000 BCE). The legendary Yu the Great is credited with organizing flood control through canals. Instead of blocking the waters (as his father Gun did, and failed), Yu diverted rivers, dredged channels, and worked with the natural flow of water to drain the floodwaters into the sea.^****

He traveled across China for 13 years, organizing labor and engineering channels. This led to a philosophy of “working with nature,” allowing some land to flood as a buffer.

Indus Valley Civilization (Modern Pakistan and NW India): Archaeological evidence suggests flood cycles and river shifts affected major cities like Mohenjo-daro. The ancient people there developed advanced urban drainage systems—covered sewers, grid street layouts with slope. The buildings were made on platforms to reduce flood impact. Finally, repeated flooding contributed to abandonment and migration when cities became too vulnerable.^††††

Maya Civilization (Mesoamerica): Although floods were less frequent than droughts, coastal and lowland areas faced seasonal flooding. The resilience strategies included raised causeways and homes, creation of reservoir systems to manage excess water and store it for dry periods, and terraced agriculture to control runoff and erosion.^‡‡‡‡

Ancient Netherlands and North Sea Tribes: North Sea floods threatened low-lying areas. The tribes there built terps (artificial mounds) to raise homes above flood level and practiced community-based management of dykes and sluices. Also, we see here the early use of wind-powered pumps (in the medieval period) to drain land.^§§§§

Over the past tens of thousands of years, humanity and our planet have repeatedly experienced extreme climatic events over long periods. Short-term estimates may occur, but with uncertainties. The climate system is complex and non-linear, temperature fluctuations are not predicted as wished, since the models are based on a very minimal studied period. The ingenuity of myth-historic heroic figures is to prevent the heavy cost of disasters to people, infrastructure and crops. A bright example to be emulated in proportion, instrumentalizing every technical and scientific knowledge in the modern age.

4. Current Climate Change

Today’s climate change is not unprecedented in the history of our planet and the civilizations it has hosted, but it is unprecedented for today’s inhabitants. We must learn from the past! We musttransfer the old historical, archaeological, and allegorical mythological “knowledge” to the present decision-making. Climate science needs to be less ‘politicized’, while climate policies need to be more scientific. Preventive actions to protect the environment should be globally agreed upon at the level of the scientific community, and propagated as mitigative actions at the political level of specific progressive implementation.

It is argued that (1) the current State’s concern is understated, and (2) standard scientific methodologies substantially underestimate the probability of extreme events.

Both issues are connected to each other and act synergistically to underestimate the probability of occurrence of extremes and hence the risk.

We are dealing with an interdependent phenomena and not independent assumptions, which is virtually equivalent to a static climate. Accordingly, if we remove this assumption of independent natural phenomena, we get a varying climate, which is consistent with the real-world climate.

Projects that receive funding to study the catastrophic consequences of climate crises should shift away from theoretical evaluations and inspire tangible efforts to safeguard cultural heritage, modern life, and infrastructure. Learning from history should be a guiding principle, but must be implemented practically.

Scientists must openly face uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming. Politicians are required to serenely confront the tangible expenses and perceived advantages of their policy measures.

The disagreement and irreconcilable positions among researchers could make their findings flawed and unreliable as policy tools, and only a very short-term tendency may seem statistically sound.

A further concern must be raised. Despite the widespread acknowledgment of the need for climate change mitigation and resilience-building, real-world implementation—especially funding for engineering solutions and infrastructure—lags behind. Based on present-day instances, the gap between climate rhetoric and reality is wide and the expected benefit for people and their property are misleading.

Using the past to design global-scale solutions is a must and should be implemented in practice especially using modern-day science, technology and innovation.

The following are some examples (on climate resilience, agroecological lessons, different policies and government implications, awareness of education, and World case studies).

A. Climate-Resilient Infrastructure

• Past: Ancient Rome’s aqueducts and qanats in Persia were early examples of sustainable water engineering.
• Application: Invest in resilient infrastructure—flood defenses, heat-resistant buildings, and drought-proof agriculture.

B. Agroecological Lessons

• Past: Terraced farming in the Andes and forest farming in Southeast Asia helped mitigate soil erosion and water scarcity.
• Application: Promote climate-smart agriculture, such as permaculture, regenerative farming, and traditional water harvesting.

C. Migration and Urbanization Policies

• Past: Climatic shifts triggered migrations (e.g., Norse abandonment of Greenland).
• Application: Plan for climate-induced migration, with equitable urban planning and legal frameworks to support displaced populations.

4.1. Policy and Governance Implications

A. International Cooperation

• Lessons: Past societies that failed to cooperate (e.g., competing city-states during prolonged drought) collapsed faster.
• Solution: Strengthen international climate governance (e.g., the Paris Agreement) to share data, technology, and funds.

B. Decentralized Adaptation

• Past: Some communities survived disasters better due to local knowledge and autonomy.
• Solution: Support community-based adaptation programs, integrating Indigenous and traditional knowledge systems.

C. Scenario Planning and Resilience Modeling

• Use historical data to model worst-case and best-case scenarios for sea-level rise, heatwaves, food shortages, etc.
• Integrate these models into national adaptation plans, insurance systems, and disaster risk reduction strategies. Funds should be spent on immediate actions to strengthen infrastructure

4.2. Framing for Public Awareness and Education

• Use stories from past climate collapses as narrative tools to educate the public and inspire action.
• Example: Comparing the Dust Bowl to future megadroughts in the U.S. Southwest.
• Build empathy and urgency through historical analogies, especially in media and policymaking.^¶¶¶¶

The documentation of the gap between rhetoric and spending in planning and reporting rather than learning from the past and using current knowledge to implement and invest in infrastructure, is evident:

For example: UNEP Adaptation Gap Report (2023)

• Estimated adaptation costs in developing countries will reach $160–340 billion/year by 2030.
• But actual finance flows are only about $21 billion/year—a huge shortfall.
• Of this, only a fraction goes to physical infrastructure projects. Much goes to planning, assessments, or capacity building.

Source: UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2023

OECD Report on Climate Finance (2023)

• The $100 billion/year pledge by rich nations (due in 2020) was only met in 2023, and only through creative accounting.
• Loans dominate over grants—infrastructure in poor regions struggles under the debt burden.
• Only 17% of climate finance goes to adaptation, and even less to engineered resilience.

World Bank: Resilient Infrastructure Is Underfunded

• The Lifelines report (2019) shows that $1 spent on resilient infrastructure yields $4 in avoided losses, but investment is not keeping pace.
• Many governments prioritize recovery over prevention, even though it’s more expensive in the long-term.

Source: World Bank Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity

4.3. Case Studies: Promises Without Delivery

Mozambique (Post-Cyclone Idai, 2019)

• Billions were pledged by donors for resilient housing and flood defenses.
• Only a small portion has materialized; tens of thousands remain in informal settlements.

Pakistan Floods (2022)

• Over $9 billion was pledged in international aid for climate-resilient rebuilding.
• As of 2024, less than half had been disbursed, mostly for emergency relief, not infrastructure.

4.4. What Needs to Change?

A. Shift to Results-Based Finance

• Require funding to deliver actual infrastructure outcomes, not just reports or workshops.

B. Strengthen Local Project Pipelines

• Support vulnerable nations and cities in designing bankable, engineering-ready projects.

C. Leverage Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)

• Reform MDBs to provide more grants and concessional finance, not loans, for resilience.

D. Private Sector Guarantees

• De-risk investments in resilience (e.g., flood barriers, water systems) with public guarantees.

In summary: Resilience and mitigation remain hopes and headlines unless translated into funded infrastructure.

There is no lack of knowledge or theoretical commitment, but a lack of political will, efficient finance mechanisms, and local project readiness. Documented reports from UNEP, World Bank, OECD, and actual country case studies all reinforce this truth.

5. Epilogue: Learning from Historical Patterns and Impacts – Proposals

The knowledge of past major climatic disasters—like prolonged droughts, ice ages, volcanic winters, and sudden warming events—can be extremely valuable in designing modern, scalable climate solutions. These historical episodes are natural laboratories for understanding human resilience, failure, and adaptation. This paper examines how this knowledge can be used as examples and frameworks for globally scalable climate strategies.

The modern lessons concern:

• Vulnerability Mapping: These events show who suffers most—typically the poor, marginalized, and agriculturally dependent.
• Early Warning Systems: Documented consequences underline the need for reliable forecasting and communication systems.
• Resource Mismanagement: Past collapses often correlate with overuse or poor planning of natural resources.

This article pinpoints deficiencies in funding mechanisms to defend our society and infrastructure, now and in the future, from current and coming major climatic disasters that result of climatic change. It describes an approach to understand past events recorded as memory in our geoarchive records, especially in specific vulnerable regions: to understand their intensities, assess past mitigation and resilience, and manage the unpredictable impacts, by taking measures of protection that withstand extreme phenomena. We must leverage current solutions and all our inventiveness, much as we did with the creation of numerous vaccinations in response to the pandemic.

Emphasis should be given to prioritized sectors for mitigating the currently undesirable effects, in parallel with re-orientation and breakdown of research on the contemporary causes of climatic change from the non-human interventions.

It suffices to say, as an example, that instead of only limiting carbon dioxide (CO₂), we should also recognize that increased CO₂ is favorable for nature and agriculture.

It is worth noting that at the recent COP28 amongst 9 projects, the most attractive and beneficial projects for countries and their needs to pledge concerned the climate impact to fund resilience and mitigation measures.^***** Agriculture, food security, health, and energy efficiency received 130–147 pledges. By contrast, other needs were less emphasized. It is proposed that the replanning and strengthening of infrastructure against extreme climatic and natural disasters be explicitly added as a priority.

The $83.7 billion committed for climate finance actions, and any funding provided for climatic risk, should be interlinked with essential current wider research directions, and longer-term risks faced by humanity. Policymakers should come along with immediate development and protection works and implementation actions.^{†††††}

While politics should aim to minimize potential climate damage, it should prioritize adaptation strategies based on proven and affordable technologies and re-engineering instruments to minimize climate damage in economic, cultural, and human factors.

Climatic change is an integral phenomenon on Earth and with life on Earth and as such requires a holistic scientific approach. Because mankind has suffered from it since its inception, today’s scientific and technological advances must find solutions to deal with it.^{‡‡‡‡‡} We should solve problems arising from climate disasters and prevent consequences in the future, instead of focusing on and considering carbon dioxide and zero carbon as the only problem. The primary Sustainable Development Goal is developing and sustaining the inner self and making a well-rounded, educated person. Such a person shall apply the 17 SDGs more effectively.^§§§§§ (Figure 4)

Learning from the past, modern cities and regions can:

• Integrate traditional wisdom into new flood-resilient designs (e.g., use of wetlands for absorption).
• Restore natural floodplains instead of building on them.
• Use nature-based solutions, like mangroves and urban green belts.
• Promote community-based flood governance, inspired by historical cooperative models.

In conclusion, from history to global resilience, documented climatic disasters offer blueprints for resilience and warnings about inaction. By translating these historical lessons into policy frameworks, education, infrastructure, and global cooperation, we can build systems that are adaptable, equitable, and scalable worldwide.